Novogratz believes it would require “a heck of a lot of crazy stuff” to happen in the next two months. He expects Bitcoin to stay between $100,000 and $125,000 unless new catalysts  emerge. Meanwhile, optimism is rising elsewhere as Japan’s new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, introduced a major stimulus package that could boost Bitcoin demand through increased liquidity. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes called the move a sign of more money printing and predicted it could eventually drive Bitcoin to $1 million. 250K Bitcoin Is Unrealistic Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz poured some cold water on the popular prediction that Bitcoin will hit $250,000 by the end of the year. He did this by saying that such a move would require extraordinary circumstances. In an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, Novogratz said that with just over two months left in 2025, it would take “a heck of a lot of crazy stuff” for Bitcoin to gain the kind of momentum needed to more than double its current price. At press time, Bitcoin was trading around $108,56. This means it would need to surge roughly 130+% in just ten weeks to reach the ambitious target. Mike Novogratz’s CNBC interview Novogratz believes that a more realistic outcome is for Bitcoin to trade within a range rather than experience another parabolic rally before the year’s end. He said that, in a worst-case scenario, Bitcoin should hold around $100,000, which is a key psychological level it first broke in December 2024 after Donald Trump’s reelection as US president. That price point was nearly tested earlier this month after Trump announced sweeping 100% tariffs on China, which sent Bitcoin tumbling to about $102,000. On the upside, Novogratz said Bitcoin would need to break past $125,000, its previous all-time high, to regain bullish momentum. He also said that the market is likely to stay “rangy between $100,000 and $120,000 or $125,000” unless new catalysts emerge. BTC’s price action over the past year (Source: CoinMarketCap ) According to Novogratz, potential triggers that could propel Bitcoin higher include Trump attempting to influence the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions or the passage of the long-awaited CLARITY Act, or a crypto market structure bill that could provide regulatory clarity for digital assets. The crypto community is also closely watching the Federal Reserve, with a 96.7% probability of another rate cut at the upcoming Oct. 29 meeting, according to CME’s Fed Watch Tool. Bitcoin analyst PlanC argues that focusing too much on short-term price targets misses the point. “Anyone who thinks Bitcoin has to peak in Q4 of this year does not understand statistics or probability,” he said, and suggested that Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory matters far more than where it ends the year. Japan’s Stimulus Sparks Bitcoin Optimism Others are a lot more optimistic about BTC’s capabilities. Japan’s new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, unveiled a sweeping economic stimulus package that is aimed at easing the burden of inflation on households, a move that some crypto observers believe could channel more capital into Bitcoin. The stimulus plan includes subsidies for electricity and gas bills, as well as regional grants designed to help small and medium-sized businesses raise wages and maintain operations amid rising costs. While the program is intended to offer relief to struggling households, critics argue it could also trigger another round of monetary expansion by Japan’s central bank, which has historically been bullish for Bitcoin. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes was among the first people to weigh in by calling the move a prelude to further fiat money printing by the Bank of Japan. “Translation: let’s print money to hand out to folks to help with food and energy costs,” Hayes wrote on X, and predicted that such a policy could push Bitcoin’s price as high as $1 million while also strengthening the Japanese yen in the short term. His comments came as the yen slipped to a one-week low after Takaichi’s appointment as Japan’s first female prime minister. Many investors see her “pro-stimulus” stance as a potential precursor to a pivot by the Bank of Japan toward quantitative easing, a policy of buying bonds and injecting liquidity into the economy to stimulate growth. Although the Bank of Japan is still in a phase of quantitative tightening, with no official plan to return to QE until inflation stabilizes at 2%, analysts suggest that Takaichi’s policies could accelerate an eventual shift. The central bank’s next policy meeting on Oct. 29 is expected to shed some more light on its direction, though most forecasts anticipate a 0.75% interest rate hike by early 2026. Meanwhile, large Bitcoin holders appear to be growing increasingly bullish. After Bitcoin’s dip to a four-month low of $104,000 last week, several “whales” have returned to the market. According to blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain , three major wallets deposited tens of millions of dollars onto the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid this week to open leveraged long positions. One of them, identified as “0x3fce,” expanded its Bitcoin position to $49.7 million, while another, “0x89AB,” opened a 6x leveraged long worth $14 million. The renewed whale  activity suggests that there is rising confidence that Japan’s stimulus measures  could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s next major rally.